Polymarket trading signals and prediction market intelligence

Each candidate market passes through the same dossier and committee pipeline as majors. The desk compares its probability estimate to market implied at entry and records alpha versus the book when the market resolves.

Longshot shrinkage anchors tail odds to measured band calibration so the book does not bleed on low-probability contracts. Entry gates reject degenerate or starved setups before they reach the public record.

• Brier score and reliability diagrams updated on every resolution
• Alpha vs market implied at entry as the headline calibration metric
• Full committee memos and dissent on analyst tier
• Permalink record for every settled prediction

Sapere sells intelligence and a verifiable record. It is not fund management and does not promise guaranteed returns.

The public surface shows what was called, at what implied odds, and how it resolved. You decide what to do with the information.